Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Compare options when information is incomplete or changing.
Decision-Making Under Uncertainty - Designed Course Cover
  • Description

Five-day professional program. Approximately 25-30 training hours. Final agenda, language and delivery arrangements are confirmed in the proposal.

Course Overview

Compare options when information is incomplete or changing.

This proposed five-day program develops a structured approach through case analysis, facilitated discussion and practical working documents. Participants adapt the learning to their organizational context and produce a final uncertainty-aware decision brief.

Learning Outcomes

Assess decision framing and uncertainty sources.

Evaluate assumptions, evidence and information value.

Apply a structured approach to options, trade-offs and decision criteria.

Develop recommendations for bias awareness and structured challenge.

Prepare and present a uncertainty-aware decision brief.

Who Should Attend

Senior leaders, department heads, strategy teams and managers.

Relevant professional experience is recommended. Participant responsibilities and prerequisite knowledge are reviewed during scoping.

Training Methodology

Facilitated discussion, worked examples, anonymized case analysis, practical workshops, peer feedback and an applied final assignment.

Learning assessment may include a baseline discussion, review of working documents and a final presentation. Completion requirements are confirmed in the proposal.

Course Tools and Templates

Decision framing and uncertainty sources working brief – proposed exercise document.

Assumptions, evidence and information value working brief – proposed exercise document.

Options, trade-offs and decision criteria working brief – proposed exercise document.

Bias awareness and structured challenge working brief – proposed exercise document.

Uncertainty-aware decision brief – proposed exercise document.

Delivery Requirements

Classroom, live online and in-house formats can be arranged by agreement. Venue, platform, language, timetable, trainer and materials are confirmed in writing.

A laptop may be needed for planning and analytical exercises. Required software, access and prerequisite skills are agreed before delivery.

Course Customization

The proposed five-day agenda can be adapted to the participant group, sector and organizational objectives. Dates, fees, delivery suitability and final activities are confirmed in the written proposal.

Course Outline

Proposed sequence, subject to the agreed training proposal.

Day 1 – Decision framing and uncertainty sources

Define the context, assess current practices and identify the key decisions relating to decision framing and uncertainty sources.

Practical output: Decision framing and uncertainty sources working brief

Day 2 – Assumptions, evidence and information value

Interpret sample information, compare suitable approaches and document assumptions for assumptions, evidence and information value.

Practical output: Assumptions, evidence and information value working brief

Day 3 – Options, trade-offs and decision criteria

Apply structured tools to an anonymized case and develop recommendations for options, trade-offs and decision criteria.

Practical output: Options, trade-offs and decision criteria working brief

Day 4 – Bias awareness and structured challenge

Review responsibilities, risks and follow-up measures through a practical exercise on bias awareness and structured challenge.

Practical output: Bias awareness and structured challenge working brief

Day 5 – Decision review simulation

Integrate the course learning into a practical assignment on decision review simulation; present recommendations and an implementation roadmap.

Practical output: Uncertainty-aware decision brief

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